Scenarios
Why Scenarios?
Human beings tend to assume that the future will be a modified version of the present, yet this is unlikely.
Scenarios help people imagine and manage the future more effectively under conditions of:
- High uncertainty
Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.
- Contested worldviews
Individual gains can lead to collective loss.
- Finite resources
Robust strategies ensure effective allocation of resources.
- Potential disruptive change
Conventional tools are too specific to recognise signals of change.
The "Scenarios for the Future" ... will become mandatory reading in my group – it is excellent and thoughtful presentation on a complex and contentious subject.
CC,
Director, IT Corporate Standards